Crimea

[fsn]

It may have slipped everyone's notice in this 100th Anniversary of WWI, but 2014 is the 150th Anniversary of the British entry into the Crimean War.

Anyone else worried about a sequel in this sesquicentennial?

[GordonY]

We'll go where Obama orders us to. 

[Bernie]

Surely 160 anniversary as it was 1854 not 1864

[fsn]

Indeed. Nice to see someone can do maths.

Probably mucked up the counting stuff 'cos I'm more concerned about the Second Crimean War.

[paulr]

Probably mucked up the counting stuff 'cos I'm more concerned about the Second Crimean War.

One of the reasons I own no modern armies and will not game within 30 years ... arbitrary I know

Let us hope cooler heads prevail, unlikely as that is based on history

[Chad]

Typical hypocrisy by Russia in my opinion.
Do nothing over Syria as they would probably
lose a lucrative arms trade, but more than happy to
try to recover a previous 'possession'.

Chad

[marie]

Crimea closed due to 6,000 special forces(Russians).......where are the mongols......lol

[sebigboss79]

Seen the Nato press conference.

They are not going to war over a "candidate". Crimea has always been Russian (populationwise as well) so naturally they want to go back to Mother Russia when the country is coup d'etat by the Western Alliance.

German sec State Steinmeier should have stayed at home and not impose (with his Polish colleague) the will of Americans on Janukowitsch. It was bound to happen. But unless Article 4 is declared Russia has shown the world what the  Nato Alliance is worth these days.

[Ace of Spades]

I get a very nasty '1938 Sudetenland' feeling by all this... It also started by the 'need' to protect certain citizens over the border and ended in a terrible war. Just because all the others thought the agressor would be satisfied now and you know; 'they sincerely promised to stop after this'...
To me it sounds a lot like the same song only this time accompanied by the balalaika and Russian lyrics... 

Cheers,
Rob

[marie]

Where is the light brigade.....

[Leman]

Bollocks - I quite fancied a visit to Sebastopol and Balaclava. Isn't it time the Crimean range was rounded off?

[Luddite]

Russia needs to maintain control of a sea port for its Black Sea fleet.  Sevastepol's it.

It therefore backs/installs a Russian puppet leader in Ukraine.  He gets a bit power mad (as tinpot leaders tend to) and introduces some daft laws, while moving Ukraine closer to Russia.

The people revolt and kick him out.

Russia moves to directly control (take back - it was Russian until 1954) the Crimea and secure their Black Sea Fleet.

Inevitable, and from Russia's perspective, basically a crisis averted.

The rest of the world pontificate and will do nothing.  Crimea will cede to Russia. 

There may be some kickback from Ukraine, but if their new government is sensible, they'll accept the situation and get on with trying to join the EU.

Realpolitik.

Putin has, once again played a blinder and showed 'the west' how to do international politics.

[Bernie]

I get a very nasty '1938 Sudetenland' feeling by all this... It also started by the 'need' to protect certain citizens over the border and ended in a terrible war. Just because all the others thought the agressor would be satisfied now and you know; 'they sincerely promised to stop after this'...
To me it sounds a lot like the same song only this time accompanied by the balalaika and Russian lyrics...

The Sudenland crisis was more appalling in that England & France forced the Czechs to hand the areas over to the Nazis, I don't think that is the EC & US position position over the Crimea

[sebigboss79]

The Sudenland crisis was more appalling in that England & France forced the Czechs to hand the areas over to the Nazis, I don't think that is the EC & US position position over the Crimea

It better be!

The alternative is a full article 4 and personally I see Putin's action the more sensible one rather than imposing a regime change WITHOUT consulting the Russians (as performed by German SecState Steinmeier and his Polish colleague).

The halt at the Crimean is the Russian way to say they gonna stop it there if the West is sensible enough NOT to threaten the Russian Black Sea presence - that is what it is all about. The Russian troops are taking defensive positions at the Crimean border to Ukraine - it seems they have no intention to push this. The military buildup is -according to news- only at the border at Kerc - not at the considerably larger land border. Another sign they are simply taking the Crimean (an their base) to make the new Ukrainian leadership talk and act sensibly in concern of the large Russian population there.

Poland apparently has called for an article 4 discussion on Tuesday and put (some) tank formations on alert and sent them to the border. Something that can go badly wrong if the Polish are not ULTRA careful. Condemnation of the Russians as barbarians is part of the problem that has escalated this matter. What if "the West" had NOT imposed a regime change (in their favour on might add) or had consulted with the Russians?

No, this crisis is fuelled by German/Polish/American naive assumptions the Russians will let them dig in their own back yard. To quote LeMay: "The Red Dog digs in our back yard, we are justified to shoot it." Alas, these matters work two ways. If the interim Ukrainian leadership has any sense they will order their forces to stand down and withdraw them from the Crimean penninsular to take the heat out. What are the alternatives?

1. Ukraine resists the Russian troops and will be overrun. The Russians are quantitative and qualitative the better fighting force. The Ukrainian army is surrounded, most of their reserves are only now mobilising and their equipment is in storage. The Russians have landed 16,000+ troops including Special Forces, MDV and have backup including (Guard) tank formations at the ready. The Russian air assets in Crmean are numerically superior to the WHOLE Ukrainian airforce.

2. Ukraine gets -despite Nato's assurance they won't- assistance in any form. The Russians still outnumber and outclass what Western armies can mobilise within 72 hours. Any longer mobilisation will be detected and countered by the Russians with the danger of a REAL escalation. What if Polish formations enter Ukraine (with permission) and come under fire by Russian troops who in turn would move into Eastern Ukrain and move towards Kiew? Is anyone seriously considering going to war with Russia? Over their legitimate claim to the Black Sea fleet and the Crimean?

3. Full article 4 mobilisation of Nato. Again: Highly unlikely, counterproductive and unless the West is willing to push this as far as Moscow AND going Nuke I see no chance of resolving this matter.

In all scenarios I see no way this can be resolved militarily. After Putin demonstrated yesterday that the Nato Alliance is unwilling to stand to its duties Nato can create a casus belli OR call the Russians gambit by holding them to their words of "protecting their Crimean populace and strategic assets". Then the Ukrainian leadership and the Russians can talk this out. Sometimes you cannot win -  but we all can still loose!

[Ace of Spades]

I think it is pretty clear that the Crimea will be a part of Russia for the next decades. Apparently the bully of the neighbourhood gets his way and others, understandably  though it is, will stand aside  and hand the victim a band-aid. Sure it is understandable that the Russians don't like what is happening so close to their borders, but does that mean they can act any way they want to protect their interests? I don't think so really.
Personally I don't see any direct escalation crossing the border of the Ukraine but the latest remarks of the Russian ambassador  at the UN that the, in Russian eyes still legitimate, president Janukovich apparently asked Russia to help  restore order in the Ukraine gives them an excuse to push their forces beyond the Crimea might they feel like it.
Let's face it; there's not much the West can do without escalating this situation beyond control, but I think the West should better be aware and make some serious thoughts on were the line should be drawn for the future and how far we're willing to go when it is crossed.
Best of luck Ukraine, looks like you're on your own in this one...

Cheers,
Rob