Covid-19

[barbarian]

Hi,

As some of you may know, I am bi-cultural French-Italian with family in both countries. (Most importantly a son in Italy)

To all my wargamers friends, brace yourselves, it is going to be a shitshow. I expect the situation is going to be worst than in China, due to that little thing called democracy that prevents to lock entire regions and people.

Italy had 3 cases 3 weeks ago. Now 4000 and 150 deaths with more than 350 in ICU.

I know the overall statistics may look "not that bad" for fatality rate BUT : 20% of the detected cases needs hospitalisation. I don't know the situation in the UK ad the US but I doubt there will be enough hospital beds.

Without panicking, I urge you to take this very seriously and wash your hands ALL THE TIME. Don't touch public surfaces (like in the tube, or door knobs) and then touch your face without washing your hands.

The level of arrogance of the French Gov (" The French health system is much better...Italians are old...several generation live in the same house...") is quite disgusting.

Today, 7 cases detected in Marseille.

Furthermore, kids seems to be mostly asymptomatic but can and will spread the virus.

All schools in Italy are closed.

If you are over 60-65 and with underlying conditions, please take measures to distance yourself socially : paint you unfinished armies !! If you are younger, think about your uncles, aunts, parents, grand-parents, be responsible, be careful.

Do not rely on gov communications and go have a look at the WHO (World Health Organisation) site for accurate numbers.

I wish you all good luck.

Yann

[jimduncanuk]

If you are over 60-65 and with underlying conditions, please take measures to distance yourself socially : paint you unfinished armies !!

Hi Yann

I have spent the last ten years distancing myself socially for lots of reasons. Mostly I'm a grumpy old man. It would probably take me another ten years to complete my unfinished armies if I didn't buy any more. Oops I just bought some more.

Keeping my head down and my hands washed.

Take care all.

Jim

[FierceKitty]

And wash with something containing a lot of alcohol.

[paulr]

We now have a bottle of hand sanitizer in our car which we use every time we get in

Washing my hands more regularly, for at least 20 seconds, and making sure to thoroughly wash the thumbs as well (apparently people focus on the palms and fingers and neglect the thumbs)

I'll be avoiding large public gathering for a while, unless there is a really good reason to be there

Barbarian, I hope your son stays well

[Duke Speedy of Leighton]

Hugs all.
They say you're unlikely to get it unless someone sneezes directly in your face, oh hell, I'm a teacher, that happens seventeen times a day... doomed.

[Techno]

You take very good care, Yann ! (And the rest of you, as well.)

I really don't know what I think about this virus....Whether it can realistically be 'contained' to any great level. (Fingers crossed it can...if everyone's sensible.)
The problem I 'see' in my part of the world (SW Wales)...Is that just about everybody and their dog has had some sort of cold for weeks and weeks now...(Von and I have some sort of bug for the best part of two months...Von far worse than me !)...So if/when someone does catch it around the locality, they won't notice until they get the 'flu like symptoms and the high temp.

Like folk say...keep washing your hands, and try and avoid too close a contact with people/crowds.

I often bump into the same person in Tesco's, when I do the 'Thursday shop', and we usually have a quick chat....."My son's coming back from Swansea Uni, this weekend, "  she said....
"Oh good, I thought"..One of the two places in Wales where there's a  confirmed case of this wretched virus. .

Best of luck, Gang !

Cheers - Phil

[Dr Dave]

Well, I've had a cold for several weeks now - nothing more - and my employer is sending me to the USA tomorrow morning for a week of meetings. I can't wait 

[barbarian]

The most infuriating thing for me is the lack of reaction from authorities.

I attribute this to a form of racism toward Asian people. " These Chinese, they don't know what they're doing..."

China gave us several months to prepare and nothing was done.

I really hope I'm wrong but I think we will be in a world of hurt in one month.

I saw people wearing masks in the metro here.

The mother of my child (in Italy) is so chill about it.

Anyways, stay safe.

Yann

[Big Insect]

An increasing number of my clients/prospects (big insurers) are all banning non-essential travel and meetings face-to-face.
This is because they have big customer call centres, which (having previously run a 1,000 seat centre myself) are germ factories. And they cannot risk the situation of them being shut down.

We use a lot of Skype/Circuit/Zoom calls anyway at work - being a multi/international-national organisation - but my role is mostly face-to-face selling (which really doesn't work over a conf call not when you are selling multi million £ contracts) so I'm in for a tough few months.

However, it's worth putting it all into context a bit - in the USA in 2018 (a particularly bad year) the death and hospitalisation rates for flu were an estimated 959,000 hospitalisations and 61,099 deaths. However, thankfully there were only 186 paediatric deaths were reported, so children seemed to be much less vulnerable (as appears to be the case with the Covid-19 virus - so far).

Although general flu might not seem like a deadly illness, on average it kills around 17,000 people in England a year. The dessity of the population and climatic conditions mean a higher % infection rate than the US (for example). Public Health England stated: "The number of flu cases and deaths due to flu-related complications varies each flu season.
"The average number of deaths in England for the last five seasons, 2014/15 to 2018/19, was 17,000 deaths annually. "This ranged from 1,692 deaths last season, 2018/19, to 28,330 deaths in 2014/15." Since October 2019, more than 4,000 people with confirmed flu have been admitted to hospitals in England with at least 70 deaths.

None of the above should lead us to be complaisant however - all the hand-washing and sanitization measures outlined above, along with extra precautions around attending events - even small ones - especially where there is a widely travelled set of delegates/participants is a really wise move at present.

As stated in another post - I have recently cancelled a weekend wargaming event I had planned for end of March and I'm personally limiting my work and personal travel (due to an already compromised immune system). But it's the things you don't think about that can sneak under your guard. I had a parcel (of soldiers ... yes I know!) arrive at my door via a courier yesterday morning ... the courier handed me an electronic device to sign - which I took without thinking! I then quickly santized and washed my hands.

We all live such interconnected lives ....
Keep safe

Mark

[barbarian]

I think comparing with the flu is a bad idea : 20% of the detected cases need a bed in hospital for the Covid-19.
If the infection is spread and the beds are "cycling" we'll be "okay".
If everybody gets it at the same time, and we run out of beds and respirators, the mortality rate could go up really badly.

The mentality of " Just like the flu " is bad for general public perception.

If/when public figures or celebrities will get it, the general population will react.

I am under 40 and in good general health so I am not panicking about my own safety. I think about the society as a whole.

PS : And masks absolutely reduce risks of contamination contrary to what is announced everywhere.

[Lord Kermit of Birkenhead]

Of course more people died in the last major heat wave !

[Big Insect]

But it is a flu-virus - it transmits like flu - it is as contagious as flu and can be as deadly as flu (which is my point)
As a society we have just gotten used to very high death rates associated with flu ... we have 'normalised' the risks and danger - which is not a good thing.

I also agree about face masks - if you can get them (we have shortages already in parts of UK).

[barbarian]

Big Insect : we agree then.

To all : I am not worried for my son who's under 10. Just the problem of next holidays (Easter) and potential flights shut-down.
I worry about my parents mostly.

[petercooman]

Big Insect : we agree then.

To all : I am not worried for my son who's under 10. Just the problem of next holidays (Easter) and potential flights shut-down.
I worry about my parents mostly.

I think that is the thing, i'm 34 and don't worry to much. But i have a diabetic father and his mother is in her 90ies and also in poor health. My father in law is 70 and just got back from an emergency visit for his heart.

It's the people surrounding us that are in more danger than ourselves.

[Norm]

Went to a cafe today in a popular UK family branded establishment. A member of staff pinched the tip of her nose and pulled down .... obviously wiping it. Went to another local cafe, sat down, an older woman next to me sneezed into her hand and seconds later put her hand palm down onto the table. Went into the loo of a high street chain, as I walked in, one bloke left the urinal, the other came out of trap 2, neither washed their hands, they just left and obviously left a minging door handle, which I now need to touch to get out!

As a small sample of human behaviour in just one place in little over an hour,  It strikes me that no matter what those of us who are careful do ....... the thoughtless dirty mingers, of which there are too many, will ensure that this thing spreads!